At 97 percent, normal monsoon this year, says IMD

Nellie Chapman
April 16, 2018

In a news that would bring cheer to the Indian economy, the IMD says the country would experience normal monsoon this year. India had 95 per cent of the LPA rainfall past year - as against the first forecast of 96 per cent of the LPA (with an error margin of +/- 5 per cent).

Private forecaster Skymet recently said that India may receive normal monsoon in 2018.

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall is likely to be 97% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 5%.

In 2017, while IMD predicted 96 per cent average rainfall in its first forecast in April, the Monsoon season over the country as a whole was 97 per cent of its LPA.

Despite "normal" forecast, the monsoon can be affected by the El Niño conditions.

The IMD, however, will forecast the onset of monsoon in middle of next month.

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The IMD will issue the update in early June, as a part of the second stage forecast.

A figure between 96 to 104 percent is considered normal monsson.

According to IMD, there is 42 per cent possibility of normal rainfall and 12 per cent possibility of above normal rainfall - it means there are good chances of normal rainfall in the country.

Anything less than 90 per cent of LPA is termed a "deficient" monsoon, and 90-96 per cent of the same is considered "below normal".

Successive years of drought in 2014 and 2015 led to a fall in crop production and poor agriculture sector growth rate which fell to a low of -0.8% in 2014-15 and -0.1% in 2015-16.

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